Phoenix on Top 10 List for Hot Housing Markets in 2019

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housing forecast 2018 hot markets

Many analysts expect the housing market to cool down significantly in 2019. More on that below. Meanwhile, according to one new analysis, Phoenix could continue to be a hot spot for home sales next year.

Across the country, the median price of existing homes sold has risen for 80 straight months. Locally and nationally, demand for lower-priced, entry-level homes has been robust, as Millennials get serious about starting families and buying homes. Home prices, rising around 6 percent a year in recent years, have outpaced wage increases, creating an affordability gap for first-time homebuyers.

Nowhere is the situation worse than in Silicon Valley and other tech hubs (and many West Coast cities in general), where prices have skyrocketed in recent years.

The home-search site Trulia expects the tech-hub hotness will give way next year to “a new group of affordable, young, opportunity-filled, desirable—and largely inland—cities primed to drive growth in the years to come.” Of the 100 largest U.S. metro areas, here are the 10 “poised for takeoff,” according to the analysis:

  1. Colorado Springs, Colo.
  2. Grand Rapids, Mich.
  3. Jacksonville, Fla.
  4. Bakersfield, Calif.
  5. Austin, Texas
  6. Fresno, Calif.
  7. Phoenix
  8. Columbia, S.C.
  9. El Paso, Texas
  10. Oklahoma City, Okla.

The analysis was based on these factors:

  • Job growth the past year.
  • Vacancy rates, indicating housing supply does not exceed demand.
  • Starter-home affordability, suggesting first-time home buyers stand a chance at buying a home.
  • More inbound than outbound home searches on Trulia, as a gauge suggesting more people are interested in that market than those looking to leave.
  • A large share of the adult population under the age of 35, which represents more potential first-time buyers.

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Prickett Realty, serving Anthem & North Phoenix

No Crystal Ball

However, multiple analysts see rising interest rates and a potentially slowing economy having a negative effect on the 2019 housing market.

In fact, Zillow, the parent company of Trulia, anticipates a nationwide “cooling from red-hot [home value] growth of 8 percent in March of this year” to a more modest 3.79 percent increase for the year 2019. predicts a more modest 2.2 percent price increase nationwide in 2019, with the number of existing home sales falling 2 percent as younger buyers find prospective mortgage payments ever more challenging.

Growth in Jobs & Population

How all this plays out locally is anyone’s guess.

As previously reported, Phoenix is among the most popular destinations in the country for job seekers.

Maricopa County is the fastest-growing county in the nation. And last year, Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale metro population passed the San Francisco Bay Area to become the 11th-largest U.S. metro area (Phoenix proper is the nation’s fifth most populated city).

Across much of NoPho, the I-17 corridor from Norterra to New River, prices have held steady or edged up over the past year, though sales volume slowed somewhat in October. See details by zone, including a list of every home sold, in the most recent analysis by North Phoenix News and In&Out Magazine:

SIDEBAR: Pent-Up Demand

Rising home prices and rising interest rates have, over the past decade, put the dream of home ownership out of reach for many potential buyers. As recently reported by North Phoenix News and In&Out Magazine, a growing number of parents with children at home are renting, deferring the American Dream while they wait for better buying opportunities.

The appetite among first-time homebuyers is there. According to a recent Bank of America analysis, some 72 percent of Millennials (roughly age 23-40) say owning a home is a top priority in their lives. And 38 percent of potential first-time buyers plan to buy within 2 years.

millennials home buying


Help Save Our Community
Small businesses are the lifeblood of our country and even more so this community. Supporting local businesses during this crisis can help keep our community economically viable. Please strongly consider supporting the businesses below, In&Out Magazine's display advertisers, as well as those in the Classifieds section of the magazine (see the full April 9 issue in PDF form). Many of these businesses have been part of the fabric of this community for two decades, not just serving our professional, service and retail needs but stepping up to support local charities, sports teams and so much more. Tip: If you know you’ll need to schedule a service, consider contacting a local business you trust and paying the standard fee for the deferred service. The links below go to their web sites.

Adult & Pediatric Allergy Associates • 602-242-4592
Anthem Senior Living • 602-909-9550
Appliance Pros • 502-501-5501
Business Network of Anthem • 623-455-9630
Carroll Law Firm • 623-551-9366
Century 21 Real Estate - Jeff Huff • 623-223-1221
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Kodiak Roofing • 602-501-7717
Luv My PC • 480-703-6609
Merrill Gardens • 623-201-4881
North Valley Water Solutions • 623-551-0515
Preferred Business of Anthem • 623-551-0523 
Prickett Realty • 623-551-8111
ProSkill Services • 623-551-7473
RE/MAX Professionals - Mike Higgins • 623-640-7502
Rise Above Remodeling • 623-551-2013
Soft Water Plus • 623-551-7383
SonoranScapes Landscaping • 602-842-9948
State Farm Insurance - Justin Simons • 623-551-3700
Storage at Anthem • 623-226-8634
Sunset Cabinets • 623-687-6579
Thompson & McGinnis Attorneys at Law • 602-952-2666
Titan Tree Care • 623-444-8448
Titan Pest Control • 623-879-8700
Wyman Plumbing & Mechanical • 623-551-6688

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Robert Roy Britt
NoPho resident Robert Roy Britt has written for In&Out publications since its inception in 2005. Britt began his journalism career in New Jersey newspapers in the early 1990s. He later became a science writer and was editor-in-chief of the online media sites and Live Science. He has written four novels. Email the author.
Robert Roy Britt on Email

Robert Roy Britt

NoPho resident Robert Roy Britt has written for In&Out publications since its inception in 2005. Britt began his journalism career in New Jersey newspapers in the early 1990s. He later became a science writer and was editor-in-chief of the online media sites and Live Science. He has written four novels. Email the author.

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